Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
